Life on the River: Flooding Resilience in Bangladesh

YouTube Video: Life on the River

AWARENESS

The Land of Superlatives

Bangladesh is often described as the “land of superlatives”. It is not only one of the most densely populated countries in the world, but is also the confluence of three of the most prolific and powerful rivers on Earth: the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna. These rivers, combined as the Padma in the south of Bangladesh, boast an average discharge of 38,129 meters cubed per second, which is rivaled only by the Amazon and the Congo.

Figure 1: Prime Minister’s Office Library, Dhaka. Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh.

In addition to water, these mighty rivers carry tons of eroded sediment from the Himalayas to the north, another seldom rivaled geographic feature of our planet. This massive influx of sand, silt, and clay acts as a precarious cushion upon which the Bengali people have built cities, villages, and livelihoods. The lack of solid bedrock for development, compounded by persistent poverty and poorly constructed infrastructure, has left this unique nation incredibly vulnerable to hazards of all kinds. According to the United Nations, Bangladesh experienced 219 natural disasters between 1980 and 2008, resulting in over $16 billion US dollars in damage. At the convergence of the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates, Bangladesh is particularly exposed to the threat of earthquakes as well as the persistent flooding posed by its dynamic fluid systems. Bangladesh is also considered to be the most vulnerable country in the world to tropical cyclones:

Figure 2: United Nations Development Programme, 2004.

Compounding these daunting challenges, 25% of Bangladesh’s land area is under 1 meter above sea level, and half is below 6. This is very troubling considering that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted conservatively that our planet will experience approximately a meter of sea level rise by 2100. This would put millions of people in Bangladesh underwater and without homes. The global political implications of accommodating this many environmental refugees are staggering.

Figure 3: Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center, NASA.2009.

 

Bangladesh is not alone in this struggle. A study released by the Institute for Demographic Research at the City University of New York calculated that 634 million people globally live 10 meters or less above sea level. Therefore, Bangladesh has been considered a priority site for understanding and strategizing potential mitigation tactics for the many compounding concerns associated with climate change. In this way, it can be considered a case study for many coastal regions worldwide. As an impoverished nation, if Bangladesh can uncover economically feasible solutions to its problems, they can be extrapolated across the globe and tailored to nations varying in wealth and political status.

UNDERSTANDING

Waters of Life and Death

Bangladesh has always been home to both channelized and sometimes unrestricted waters. The seasonal monsoons, which flood the landscape with water, have been a source of nutrient rich mud on which to plant rice. There are two types of floods in Bangladesh: the barsha, which are annual floods that inundate 20% of the land area, and bonna, which are less common or predictable, and affect more than 35% of the area. For the most part, the Bengali people have adapted to regular floods, many living on houseboats or in stilted houses for a portion of the year. However, the flooding that has been a source of life for generations is quickly becoming a force of destruction. The area affected by bonna floods has increased from 35% in 1974 to 68% in 1998. It is becoming clear that the strategies that once were sufficient for survival here must be adapted for floods that are more frequent, more intense, and longer lasting than those of the past.

Many factors have contributed to this troubling increase in flooding, most related to human activity. Increasing urbanization has fundamentally changed the character of the Bengali landscape. From 1951 to 1990, the urban population increased from 1.81 million (4.33% of total population) to 25.2 million. Currently, approximately 25% of the population resides in cities. In order to accommodate this influx, rapid development has proceeded, dramatically increasing the amount of impervious surfaces in a once predominantly rural nation. It is well known that impervious surfaces, such as parking lots and roads, prevent rainwater from infiltrating the soil, forcing this water to concentrate and run off into waterways. Instead of nourishing vegetation, this water, now full of pollutants such as motor oil, has no path to travel except directly into rivers that swell correspondingly. It is recommended by the United States Geological Survey that every 10% increase in impervious surface added to a watershed be met with a 23% increase in drainage capacity, typically achieved by dredging or deepening stream channels. This has not been undertaken.

It is not just the activities within national boundaries that contribute to flooding downstream. Agriculture has intensified in India to the north, as well as along the slopes of the Himalayas in Nepal. This agriculture has damaged many of the riparian buffer zones along river channels and greatly increased soil erosion. This works in conjunction with active deforestation. Only 10% of Bangladesh is still forested.

Life on a Char

The social and political aspects of flooding in Bangladesh are complex. It is important to understand that rivers are not static features. In fact, they are constantly avulsing across the landscape, occupying new channels while leaving older ones dry. They scour their banks in some places while accreting sediment in others. In some ways, rivers can be considered alive. While this is a fascinating geological concept, it creates real problems in developing lasting human structures. Unfortunately, as rivers are a vital passage for trade and commerce in Bangladesh, it is essential to build in proximity to them. In fact, rivers are so numerous here that it would be nearly impossible to build far from them, even with concerted effort. The poor are most often encumbered by this challenge. The International Fund for Agricultural Development estimates that 26,000 Bengalis per year lose their land due to mercurial river dynamics. Many of these people, unexpectedly evicted from their homes, choose to take up residence on chars, newly accreted land formed by deposition of riverine sediment. Chars can be either island chars or attached chars. Island chars are inaccessible from the mainland year round, whereas attached chars are generally accessible except in periods of high flow, when usually abandoned river channels are filled. Island chars tend to be older and more stable. Flooding over chars leaves behind a layer of fine clay and silt, conducive to the growth of vegetation.

Figure 4: Rahman et al, Char Formation and Livelihood Characteristics of Char Dwellers of Alluvial River in Bangladesh. 2012.

Unfortunately, persons who lose their land due to the river have no legal entitlement to compensation. Furthermore, any newly built land, such as chars, becomes property of the government. Families must petition the government for portions of this land, often after much time and struggle.

Life on a char is not easy, although it is the reality for an estimated 5 million Bengalis today. Access to basic amenities, such as medical care, sanitation, electricity, and schools is severely limited if not entirely absent. 44% of char dwellers lost crops in the floods of the 2002 monsoon season, as compared to only 1% of rural Bengalis. This fosters financial insecurity—some households are forced to take out loans just to buy staple foods such as rice, which do not provide the essential micronutrients that expensive animal products can provide. Efforts have been made by the Bengali government and many international aid organizations such as the World Bank to mitigate the damaging effects of flooding, in order to promote an improved quality of life for both char dwellers and the population at large.

ANALYSIS

The Flood Action Plan

Several action plans have been written, approved, and implemented to address these issues over the past couple decades. Following a particularly nasty flood season in 1988, the Government of Bangladesh adopted a World Bank sponsored Flood Action Plan (FAP), which called for many technical engineered solutions. The goals of FAP were to protect rural infrastructure, increase flood awareness and education, produce structures and protective embankments, create a flood forecasting system, and increase global awareness of floods and relief needs. 15 donors contributed funds to FAP, but it was met with harsh criticism as being unrealistic and impractical. Initial cost estimates anticipated $155 billion was necessary to simply construct protective infrastructure, with an additional $5-$10 billion to maintain it. While some of the advocated structures were actually built, many were out of the realm of feasibility.

There were also unintended consequences of FAP. Natural flooding of the river historically contributed to soil fertility, and also was a crucial step in the life cycle of many fish populations. Yield from both fishermen and farmers was adversely affected. FAP was abandoned as investors harbored concerns that such a poor country would not be able to afford maintenance of embankments even if they were found to be entirely successful.

Engineered Solutions

One technical strategy that has been implemented across the nation is “falling aprons”. These protective measures are fairly simple in design: large concrete blocks called “rip rap” are placed along the banks of the river. When scouring occurs, the rip rap falls down and piles along the eroding bank, fortifying it. Instead of concrete blocks, sometimes sand filled textile bags called geobags are used.

Figure 5: Dr. Mark E. Vardy, National Environmental Research Council. 2015.

Figure 6: Oberhagemann et al, Understanding Falling Aprons-Experience from the lower Brahmaputra/Jamuna River, 2008.

Flood control measures in Bangladesh have been largely limited to earthen embankments and polders. The Bangladesh Water Development Board has constructed a total of 5,695 kilometers of embankments to date. An embankment is simply a ridge built generally out of earth or rock to raise the elevation around a river so that flood waters are contained and do not spill out onto the landscape. The Mississippi River in the United States also boasts several of these structures, but also has much greater financial means to both build and maintain them. Embankments can provide some short-term relief, but they must be continually maintained. More importantly, they deny the very nature of the river as a dynamic feature that cannot be restricted to its channel alone. The floodplain is an inherent component of the river, and by denying the river its ability to flood we only serve to decrease drainage capacity and ultimately intensify the effects of flooding.

The Char Development and Settlement Project

While the complexity of physical and technical solutions continues to challenge scientists, there has been moderately better success in social development initiatives. The Char Development and Settlement Project (CDSP) was launched in 1994, with the purpose of facilitating approval for displaced persons seeking land from the government. The first step in this process is Plot-to-Plot Surveying (PTPS). Cartographers measure each plot of land on a char and also collect census data on the inhabitants of each. Once maps are compiled, they are published and the public is given 30 days to express complaints or make changes. In most land based proceedings, these maps are posted at the Upazila Land Office. However, this requires that people who have limited means to travel may not be able to make the journey to the office. What is innovative about CDSP is that the maps get posted at the village level, easily accessible to all people. Those families that are listed as officially landless are put into a streamlined process to be approved for their own property. The government taking an active role in this land distribution has also protected vulnerable people from abuse by the Bahini, once a military group fighting Pakistan in the 1970s, but now functionally a gang wielding considerable local power. In the absence of federal level enforcement, they have been the primary source of selling land, but often intimidate and exploit those who purchase.

Another new and progressive aspect of the CDSP is that it is far more aware of gender empowerment than previous policies. Women are listed as equal owners of land with their husbands in legal documentation. They have legal ownership of 50% of the land. Therefore, if a husband is implicated in abuse or criminal activity, he can lose his share of the land at no detriment to his wife.  As of now, this initiative has only been undertaken on five chars, but it is intended to be expanded in coming years. By 2017, 28,000 households are anticipated to benefit from the services included in the CDSP.

The Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan

The government of Bangladesh is not blind to the fact that their nation is one of the most vulnerable on Earth. In 2009, they drafted the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan. This was built on six pillars:

Food Security, Social Protection, and Health: Access to employment, safe housing, medical services, and sufficient food for the most vulnerable populations.

Comprehensive Disaster Management: Further improve the country’s disaster management systems.

Infrastructure: Keeping key infrastructure, such as embankments and cyclone shelters, well maintained and prepped for unexpected emergencies.

Research and Knowledge Management: Predicting the scale and timing of climate change impacts and determine appropriate investments for future mitigation.

Mitigation and Low Carbon Development: To develop more low carbon strategies in the nation’s businesses and institutions

Capacity Building and Institutions: To strengthen the ability of the federal government to manage effectively in disaster scenarios.

            This Action Plan has many smart components. First, it is important to acknowledge that the question of climate resilience is not simply an environmental and technical problem. These inevitable physical threats will be compounded by the underlying social vulnerabilities and poverty experienced by a large portion of the nation. Simply providing amenities to these people during times of flooding or no is essential. This social inequality aspect was one of the reasons Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans was so catastrophic. It is not only the job of engineers to solve all problems with technology—the social ills and world wealth discrepancies must be addressed. It is also wise that Bangladesh is keen to collaborate with other world partners. This will allow them to fund more ambitious projects, which has been one of the greatest hindrances to their resiliency success as of now. Although climate resistant infrastructure is more costly to construct, in the long term their costs will be minimal in comparison to repairing damage that has been done.

STRATEGIES

The Role of the Planner

It is clear that the harmful effects of climate change have begun to wage their war against Bangladesh, and that these effects will only intensify in the coming years. We must be realistic in determining how much we can really do to prevent flooding in a place where flooding has been a natural process for thousands of years. Rather than attempting to fundamentally alter nature to be more convenient for human activity, it is human behavior that must be manipulated.

Urban and regional planners have an important role to play in the coming years. First of all, urbanization needs to be more carefully planned. All development this nation has needs to be framed around the immutable desires of the river. The technology for pervious paving is still nascent, but could be crucial to increasing drainage of floodwaters to reduce devastating runoff. If pervious surfaces are not an option, urbanization should be restricted to areas with underlying silty or clay soils. Water can much more easily drain through sand, so sandy areas should be left exposed to increase infiltration. Certain vegetation could also be planted that increases drainage area for water—conveniently, the staple food item of Bangladesh, rice, thrives under flooded conditions.

The Government of Bangladesh should identify which floodplain areas are the most prone to flooding. This can be achieved by researching historical flood data over the past century to determine which places most commonly experienced damaging floods. With a floodplain zoning plan, key infrastructure and amenities such as hospitals, condensed housing, and schools can be built elsewhere. Undeveloped floodplains allow the river to naturally flood while incurring fewer damages to human life and structures. To continually rebuild in a region that will always be flooded again is to fight a battle that cannot be won.

The financial situation of Bangladesh makes comprehensive planning difficult or impossible for them to achieve. Therefore, lessons must be taken from the incremental planning school of thought. Rather than building huge stretches of embankments all at once, with little idea of their efficacy, it may be more appropriate to experiment with different designs temporarily. Because flooding is so frequent, experimental structures can be tested quickly and adapted in steps, with far less financial commitment. Homes built on stilts have been moderately successful—an expansion of this practice, at least in the less earthquake prone regions, could spare some flood damage. Bangladesh could certainly learn lessons from other coastal regions, such as the United States Gulf Coast. Sharing of ideas and collaboration internationally could be beneficial to all parties. Climate change and sea level rise are threats to all humanity, not just isolated countries.

Behavior Change and Social Action

Again, the challenges of flooding and climate change are shaped in part by our social institutions. The Government of Bangladesh must prioritize creating financial stability for its most socially vulnerable groups. The Char Development and Settlement Project is a good first step in this effort.

Education will also be a big player in how Bangladesh responds to its many environmental hazards.  Farmers in both Bangladesh as well as northern India could work to adopt better management practices, such as conservation tilling, to minimize soil erosion. Training programs could help farmers to not only produce crops more efficiently, but also to decrease their effects on the greater environment. More broadly, an expansion of family planning education and birth control accessibility could slow the rapid growth of the Bengali population. The population density here is already too great to be managed well—resources do not exist to accommodate unsustainable growth.

Unfortunately, the problems that Bangladesh faces will not remain theirs alone to shoulder. Projected sea level rise makes it likely that no matter how resilient Bangladesh becomes, it may still face destruction.  The nations of the world need to become cognizant of the role they may play in future decades. It is an important philosophical, moral, and logistical question to see how environmental refugees will be sheltered when their homes are permanently underwater. It is only with a strong and unified international movement that we will be able to overcome the challenges the future holds, for Bangladesh and for us all.

References:

“Bangladesh: Disaster Risk Reduction As Development”. United Nations Development Programme. N.p., 2016. Web. 2 May 2016.

Brammer, Hugh. “After The Bangladesh Flood Action Plan: Looking To The Future”. Environmental Hazards 9.1 (2010): 118-130. Web.

Greenfieldboyce, Nell. “Study: 634 Million People At Risk From Rising Seas”. NPR.org. N.p., 2007. Web. 2 May 2016.

Hausfather, Zeke. “IPCC’s New Estimates For Increased Sea-Level Rise – Yale Climate Connections”.Yale Climate Connections. N.p., 2013. Web. 2 May 2016.

Hessel, Sarah. “Living On New Land: Char Development In Bangladesh”. International Fund for Agricultural Development. N.p., 2013. Web. 2 May 2016.

Khalequzzaman, Md. “Flood Control In Bangladesh Through Best Management Practices”. Georgia Southwestern State University (2016): n. pag. Web. 2 May 2016.

“LEDC Case Study: Coping With Flooding In Bangladesh”. British Broadcasting Company. N.p., 2016. Web. 2 May 2016.

“Life In The Chars In Bangladesh”. Nutritional Surveillance Project Bulletin 14 (2003): n. pag. Web. 2 May 2016.

Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh,. Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy And Action Plan 2009. Dhaka, Bangladesh: N.p., 2009. Web. 2 May 2016.

Netherlands Development Cooperation,. Flood Action Plan, Bangladesh. 1993. Web. 2 May 2016.

Oberhageman, Knut, Philemon Diggelmann, and Mukhles-Uz-Zaman. “Understanding Falling Aprons– Experience From The Lower Brahmaputra/Jamuna River”. Fourth International Conference on Scour and Erosion (2008): 302-309. Web. 2 May 2016.

Rahman, M. R. and Chowdhury, J. U., 1998, Impacts of flood control projects in Bangladesh. In, Ali, M. A., Hoque, M. M., Rahman, R., and Rashid, S., 1998 (eds), Bangladesh Floods – Views from Home and Abroad: Dhaka, United Press Limited, p. 55-66.

Rahman, Mohammad Arifur and Md. Munsur Rahman. “Char Formation And Livelihood Characteristics Of Char Dwellers Of Alluvial River In Bangladesh”. 6th International Conference on Scour and Erosion (2012): 145-152. Web. 2 May 2016.

“Socioeconomic Data And Applications Center | SEDAC”. Sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu. N.p., 2016. Web. 2 May 2016.

“The Char Development And Settlement Project Phase IV”. Cdsp.org.bd. N.p., 2015. Web. 2 May 2016.

United States Geological Survey,. Flood Characteristics Of Urban Watersheds In The United States. Alexandria, Virginia: N.p., 1984. Web. 2 May 2016.

“Water Resources Of India”. Current Science 89.5 (2005): 794-811. Web. 2 May 2016.

The Sea Level Rise Tool for Sandy Recovery: Useful Tool or Irrelevant Interface?

Science and the Public: An Uneasy Relationship

One of the greatest challenges in making informed decisions about the climate is the information gap between scientists and civilians. It is often difficult to express complex meteorological, geologic, and technical concepts to untrained persons, and scientists are often met with distrust. A Pew study released this past year indicated that while 87 percent of scientists in the American Association for the Advancement of Science (the world’s largest scientific organization) believe that climate change is caused by human actions, just 50 percent of Americans agree. Furthermore, negative opinions on science have only increased in recent years:

It is the role of our government officials to evaluate information from the scientific community to determine what is important and make it accessible to the public. However, an overwhelming majority of our elected government officials come from non-scientific backgrounds, particularly business and law. In fact, of the 539 members of our 112^th congress, in office from 2011 to 2012, 209 reported as businessmen and women, 208 were public servants, and 200 were lawyers (many members listed multiple professions). Only 9 Congressmen and women responded as scientists .

The lack of scientifically minded politicians is not universal. In China, eight out of nine top government officials come from scientific backgrounds, particularly engineering. German chancellor Angela Merkel has a doctorate in physical chemistry.  The reasons behind Americans being hesitant to elect scientists are difficult to identify; a tradition of considering scientists elitist and “out of touch” has been established in this nation and may be difficult to reverse. The very nature of science is that of skepticism and cautious calculation, which makes citizens uncomfortable when they expect their officials to have strong and unwavering opinions.

Technology and Citizen Participation: The US Climate Resilience Toolkit

Where our elected officials may fall short, technology may provide solutions. The internet is accessible to an overwhelming majority of Americans—whereas in 2000, 48% of Americans reported that they did not use the internet, today only 15% remain offline. Internet has become available for free in many public places, such as libraries and government buildings. If data are presented in a user friendly interface online, there are few limitations to the public in acquiring this information and coming to their own conclusions about climate change, natural hazards, and our vulnerability to them.

When President Obama released his Climate Action Plan in June of 2013, it called for federal agencies to “create a virtual climate resilience toolkit that centralizes access to data-driven resilience tools, services, and best practices”. A specific example provided by the Plan was the creation of interactive sea-level rise maps and sea-level rise calculators to aid post-Hurricane Sandy rebuilding in New York and New Jersey.  The U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit was launched in the Fall of 2014 by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in collaboration with other Federal agencies, to provide not only decision makers but also the public with easily accessible and meaningful data concerning the state of our nation’s vulnerability to natural hazards.

Now, in 2016, has the Climate Resilience Toolkit lived up to its expectations? It is essential that these tools are critically evaluated and improved upon over time, so that they are intuitive, practical, and interesting for the average user.

General Components of the Toolkit

This effort by the Obama administration has many components to engage users in a climate resiliency discussion. The website toolkit.climate.gov is not only a database, but also provides “Taking Action” stories—over 20 real world case studies describing climate risks and how various communities and businesses are addressing them. These stories come from across the entire nation, from Maine to Arizona to native tribal lands. Introducing a human component to the climate resiliency initiative is a smart move, making this issue relatable to individuals. The number of tools provided is vast and comprehensive: there are literally hundreds of tools posted which address such diverse topics as coastal flood risk, human health, transportation, and food resilience. While this could be considered overwhelming, the site provides filtering by topic as to be easily navigable by users. As an overview, the toolkit provides five steps to climate resilience: Identify the Problem, Determine Vulnerabilities, Investigate Options, Evaluate Risks & Costs, and Take Action.

Evaluating a Specific Tool: Sea Level Rise Tool for Sandy Recovery

However, are these individual tools actually useful, after the initial “wow” of the website design fades? I sought to evaluate the Sea Level Rise Tool for Sandy Recovery, because this was one of the very first tools proposed by President Obama in his Plan. Hurricane Sandy was the second most expensive hurricane to make landfall in the United States, and had a death toll of 286 people globally.

The aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, found at whitehouse.gov

The sea level rise tool provides maps for New York City, based on FEMA flood hazard data in collaboration with regional projections on future sea level rise provided by the New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC). The calculator allows users to see anticipated flood elevations over five year intervals from 2010 to 2100. The maps outline future risks posed by extreme events over broad spatial scales. It is to be noted that the tool doesn’t seek to describe depth of flooding, but rather horizontal extent.

The tool can be opened on web browser via map viewer or ArcGIS for desktop. According to ArcGIS’s website, the Basic version of its desktop program (with only a single license) is $1,500. This can hardly be considered accessible to the average person. Because my goal is to evaluate this tool for the average user, I opened it with map viewer. The reported audience for this tool is Congressional representatives, state and city officials, and state and local planners. The public is not mentioned as potential users of this tool. However, as a publicly available tool, it is important that local citizens have the option to learn from this as well.

Upon viewing the map, I was a bit disappointed by the interface. First, when I zoomed in and out, the layer of FEMA 1% Flood Hazard data on top of the base map would sometimes not also scale accordingly. It is also not intuitive what each of the layers tangibly represents. The legend describes one layer as “Low end 10th Percentile (Best Available SFHA + 1.25 ft)”, but does not anywhere indicated what SFHA even stands for. I am educated in hazards mitigation, and find this confusing. I cannot imagine that the average American would find this useful. Even if the intended audience is politicians, I doubt they would consider this meaningful.

This tool does attempt to work on multiple spatial levels (when it responds in a timely way to zooming in and out). Below is a map of the entire extent of the data:

However, you can also zoom in to explore specific regions that may be of interest, like the southern tip of Manhattan:

The level of detail here is actually quite good. However, I think it could be benefitted by better labeling. While someone who lives in Manhattan may be able to look at this and identify their own neighborhood, it would be more universally usable if neighborhoods were labeled, or at least important buildings and landmarks. It would be more meaningful to see that in 100 years, the historic village of Greenwich would be inundated in a flood event, than just unmarked blobs of orange and yellow. I also believe that it would be very interesting to see these data overlaid with social vulnerability maps.

Compared to other tools I have seen for climate resilience, there are very few parameters here for a user to manipulate. Customizable features would make this tool far more interactive and would generate more interest. As of now, the only options are the extent of flooding during Sandy (indicated in yellow above), and this extent as it is projected to be in 2050, 2080, and 2100. Even just reformatting the interface to have a scrolling bar from “worst case” to “best case” scenario may be more interesting than how it is currently presented.

Recommendations

Generally speaking, I believe that this tool needs many improvements to make it more intuitive and thought-provoking. It does not immediately pique interest as it exists currently. Additional data could strengthen the tool, such as overlays of population density, poverty, racial demographics, and historic landmarks. The slow loading of layers and minor technical issues with the tool are also frustrating and could prevent a person from really exploring this deeply.

I am also having trouble determining what is to be done with these data. It is apparent that there could be real concerns with sea level rise in the coming century. Unfortunately, people have densely occupied New York City for centuries. Is there any practical solution to that problem? It would require an overwhelming amount of money and dedication to relocate Manhattan and the financial institutions associated with it.

The final concern about the Sea Level Rise tool is one that could be attributed to most climate resilience tools: how do we encourage the public to actually log on and use this? I personally have not seen it advertised widely. I am not sure that most people are aware of its existence, and if they are I do not believe that it is entertaining enough to appeal to a wide audience. My concern is that tools such as this are only used by people who already had a vested interest in the topic.

If we are to make these tools a part of everyday citizen participation, they must be streamlined, thoroughly explained for a non-scientific audience, and related to factors that can be universally appreciated. This could be accomplished perhaps by creating mockup images of what Manhattan would look like after a flood in 2100. This would be visually striking for the public. An even more creative and unusual option would be to have a tool that shows people which entertainment areas or restaurants would be flooded in different years. Maybe it would pique interest to see that a famous old theater would be underwater, or a beloved neighborhood pizza joint. Intimate and personal details are key to inspiring the public to become involved in the climate resilience effort.

Mitigation in the Music City: Dallas, Texas as a Proxy for Resilience in Nashville, Tennessee

Haley Briel

Nashville, Tennessee, is a city that lives in the American imagination as an icon of Southern culture and notably, Southern music. The list of musicians who have called Nashville home is impressive, including Johnny Cash, Willie Nelson, and Taylor Swift. Indeed, Nashville has become a hot spot for many Americans in and out of the music industry, due to its economic opportunity and mild climate.

Brian Jannsen, Alamy Stock Photo, 2011

On average, 82 people move to Nashville each day, making it one of the fastest growing cities in America. While this influx has contributed to the city’s wealth, it also presents infrastructure and social concerns that may make the Music City increasingly vulnerable to natural hazards. Nashville’s greatest challenges are:

• Managing growth to prioritize social equity and minimize gentrification,
• Addressing the increased frequency of natural disasters due to climate change, and
• Improving transportation infrastructure to accommodate a sprawling and low population density metropolitan area.

The 100 Resilient Cities (100RC) project, funded by the Rockefeller Foundation, may provide strategies for resilience that Nashville could implement to bolster its response to both chronic and acute stressors. Of the cities currently selected as Resilient Cities, Dallas Texas can provide a valuable comparison to Nashville, and can give us insight as to how Nashville can improve its current natural hazards plans.

“The Athens of the South”

As of 2013, Nashville was home to approximately 650,000 residents (1.7 million if surrounding areas are included). It is attractive to newcomers for a variety of reasons. The city’s economy is diverse, which has sheltered it from the downturn that cities experience when reliant on one industry. Nashville’s largest industry is health care. 21 major health care companies are based here—netting $30 billion per year. However, in addition to health care, 200 recording studios can be found in Nashville, as well as booming tourism, technology companies, and more. According to Forbes Magazine, Nashville was recently ranked #6 in job growth in the nation. Nashville is further benefitted by its many prestigious educational institutions, notably Vanderbilt University and Tennessee State University. These assets attract a significant number of young professionals to settle in the area. The intellectual prowess of the city earned it the nickname “the Athens of the South”.

Lastly, the Music City is centrally located in the Southeast, within one day’s drive to several major cities, such as Atlanta, St. Louis, Louisville, and Memphis. Three major highways convene here, making it highly convenient for car travel. These roadways could ease evacuation of the city should disaster strike, at least for residents who own personal vehicles.

Geographic Vulnerabilities

However, Nashville’s seemingly ideal location is also a source of concern. According to the 2014 Davidson County Risk Assessment, the biggest natural threats to Nashville are as follows: floods, tornadoes, thunderstorms, and extreme hot/cold events. The geography of Nashville itself makes it vulnerable: this city is located in the Nashville Basin, a low lying region cradled between the Western Highland Rim and the Cumberland Plateau.

Moore, Harry L. A Geologic Trip across Tennessee by Interstate 40, 1994.

While this position usually manifests as a minor inconvenience for allergy sufferers during pollen season, it also makes Nashville a target for both floods and tornadoes. Between 1833, when tornadoes were first publicly recorded in Tennessee, and 2008, there were over 500 tornadoes documented making landfall in central Tennessee and the greater Nashville area. In April of 1998, an F3 tornado hit downtown Nashville. Over 300 homes in economically disadvantaged East Nashville were damaged, and 35 downtown buildings were deemed structurally unsound following the destruction.

National Weather Service, NOAA. Tennessee Severe Weather Awareness Week.

However, more recently, flooding has been the primary concern of disaster planning in Nashville. In May of 2010, the previous two-day rainfall record was shattered by a massive storm that left large portions of the city underwater. As the Cumberland river swelled, 10,000 people were displaced from their homes, and even an entire year later 300-400 businesses remained closed. Nearly $2 billion in private property damage was sustained, in addition to $120 million in public infrastructure.

Larry McCormack, The Tennessean, 2010.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2010.

Social Vulnerabilities

The innate natural vulnerability of Nashville is compounded by several social concerns—concerns that are often hidden by the great growth and prosperity the city ostensibly has enjoyed. Its poverty rate, while decreasing each year, still hovers at 17.8%, 2.7% higher than the national average. More important than the overall poverty rate is the great wealth disparity between neighborhoods–it ranges between 2.1% and a staggering 41.8%.

Another point of contention among Nashville residents is the woeful lack of adequate public transit. Tennessee’s lack of income tax makes it difficult to fund large public works projects, and as a result, only three percent of workers in Nashville reported using public transit to get to work. The inconvenience of buses and total lack of rail system could easily compound the negative effects of disasters for residents who do not own cars.

A Comparison of Nashville and Dallas

Currently, Nashville is not a chosen city for 100RC. However, it can still draw lessons from this project by studying comparable cities that are included. Dallas, Texas, can serve as a proxy for Nashville due to its population growth, insufficient public transit, and vulnerability to floods and tornadoes. Typically, Dallas public transit has been used solely by those in poverty and the Hispanic community, but it has not been readily embraced by the entire population. To parallel Nashville’s 2010 flooding, central Texas is known as “Flash Flood Alley”.  Minor flooding occurs regularly on the Trinity River in Dallas, although the most disastrous events happened in the early 20^th century. Tornadoes are also commonplace in Dallas; only three months ago (December 2015), eight people were killed by a series of tornadoes that swept the region.

When comparing social factors, many parallels can be drawn between Nashville (in Davidson County) and Dallas:

	Davidson County	Dallas County
Median Income	$47.434	$49,925
% College graduates	36.5%	28.7%
Poverty Rate	19.9%	19.3%
Unemployment Rate	5.1%	4.1%
Population	668,347	2,518,638
Land area (miles squared)	526 miles squared	909 miles squared
Job Growth	3.6%	4%
% African American	28.1%	23.1%

*Information provided based on 2014 census data, http://www.census.gov

The biggest differences between the two are size (Dallas is much larger and much denser) and the Hispanic population. Dallas is home to a sizeable and growing Hispanic population, many of whom are not native English speakers. This presents a resiliency challenge that cannot be paralleled in Nashville.

Lessons Drawn from 100 Resilient Cities

The City Resilience Framework (CRF) proposed by 100RC suggested a multidimensional approach to increasing urban resilience. A successful plan must be inclusive, taking into account the needs and desires of diverse stakeholders, flexible, and resourceful (identifying unique solutions based on past experiences). 100RC also assists cities in hiring Chief Resilience Officers. Dallas has hired Theresa O’Donnell, a planner with 25 years of experience and 13 in the Dallas area specifically. Nashville could greatly benefit from creating such a position.

On the 100RC website, Maxwell Young provides some suggestions to inspire increased alternative transportation usage in cities. His article can be found here:

http://www.100resilientcities.org/blog/entry/what-people-need-to-use-alternative-transport-more#/-_/

After compiling advice from 125 respondents, Young offers several compelling ideas. First, local businesses should incentivize consumers to use public transit or bicycles. Employers could provide transportation vouchers to their employers to mitigate the cost of public transit, or stores could have a benefits program that provides discounts to cyclists. Oak Cliff, a neighborhood in Dallas, already has such a program called Bike Friendly Oak Cliff (BFOC). Futhermore, an increase in biking infrastructure can help promote biking as a viable transportation option. In 2012, Dallas only had 8 miles of on-street bike lanes. That has since increased to 39.3, and is anticipated to continue to 107 miles. Increased attention to biking rules during driver’s education would also minimize misconceptions and bicycle/car accidents.

A unique and innovative strategy from 100RC to address both biking and flooding is found in Boulder, Colorado. Boulder has created bicycle lanes that, during a flood event, are closed to traffic and can function as floodways to divert excess water. The use of infrastructure to increase daily quality of life (or minimize chronic stressors) and also mitigate acute stressors. Nashville’s Cumberland River could be seen as an attraction and an asset to the city, not simply a threat or inconvenience.

As Dallas continues to benefit from its membership in 100RC, Nashville should keep a watchful eye on its developments. Ideally, Nashville will one day join as a Resilient City, but in the meantime, it can benefit from observing both the failures and successes other cities experience in their journey toward resilience.

Sources:

100 Resilient Cities Network. http://www.100resilientcities.org/#/-_/

Metropolitan Nashville-Davidson County Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan. January 2015. Prepared by the Office of Emergency Management. http://www.nashville.gov/

Nashville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization: Growth Trends and Forecasts. 2016. http://www.nashvillempo.org/growth/

Bike Friendly Oak Cliff. http://bikefriendlyoc.org/

Formby, Brandon. “Dallas bike lanes moving forward, but not the way everyone wants”. The Dallas Morning News, 25 September 2015.

United States Census Bureau, Quick Facts. http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/00

Grigsby, Karen. “Twenty things to know about the 2010 Nashville flood”. The Tennessean, 1 May 2015. http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/local/2015/04/30/nashville-flood-20-things-to-know/26653901/                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Gonzales, Tony. “Nashville poverty down, but disparities still deep”. The Tennessean, 28 April 2015. http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2015/04/28/nashville-poverty-disparities-still-deep/26533945/